Next Challenge Up
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By Eddie Sanchez
The forty-two year old, former eight division world champion has done his part to keep boxing alive. This August, he will take on the P4P ranked Errol Spence Jr., in what could be a legacy defining matchup for the American.
Manny Pacquiao and team will hope that this blockbuster event will be a (final?) feather in his cap for what has been one of the most remarkable careers in boxing history. As always, time will tell us where the truth lies.
Pacman will have been out of the ring over two years since his dramatic victory over Keith Thurman. While this will offer some concern for given his advanced age, the benefit of doubt should lie with the champion* given the years of professionalism he has displayed, and the stellar work ethic he possesses.
The asterisk is key, given the WBA relegated Pacman to Champion in Recess because of his inactivity, largely due to COVID-19. Understanding the vast amount of eyes that are expected to watch, and the cloud of uncertainty revolving around whether this may be his last fight, the WBA is expected to backtrack and reinstate Manny as the Super World Champion.
If the organization follows through with this expectation, then this fight will be a three-belt unification that would leave Terrance Crawford’s WBO belt as the only one not on the line.
Crawford’s presence will loom large as we get closer to this fight date. Fans have dealt with the “will they, won’t they” saga for a few years now, yet still we have no clear end in sight.
Although in some sense the Pacquiao-Spence superfight can arguably be viewed as a secondary matchup considering the possibilities with Crawford, there is still much intrigue revolving around whether Manny has one final hurrah left in him.
There surely will be many conflicted fans out there. Under most circumstances, it could be rightfully assumed that most would love to see Manny Pacquiao walk into the sunset as a three-belt champion, but when the alternative truth would be a top four P4P fighter in the world, losing and likely ending the intrigue around a Crawford-Spence superfight, the conflicted feelings will live.
The keys to victory for Manny Pacquiao will include defensive head movement, body work and lateral quickness. Errol Spence is a shifty fighter with length, and Manny will have his work cut out for him to utilize his years of experience to outsmart the Dallas, Texas native.
Head movement will be key as Spence will likely try to use his jab to establish a rhythm early on. With strong head movement, Spence will likely look to move himself to avoid a successful onslaught from Pacquiao.
While the defensive head movement will be key in avoiding troubling shots, Manny will then need to mix in his own body work to limit Spence’s ability to stick-and-move. Danny Garcia had some success against Spence when they were in close quarters, but his lack of activity and movement left him unable to establish any rhythm and lasting effects. Manny is a very active and quick fighter though. So as he looks to evade headshots, he can then use his quickness to test Spence’s body.
The third key to victory will be to remain focused and utilize lateral quickness. Although strong and quick with his hands, Manny Pacquiao can no longer punch his way out of trouble in a moment’s notice, and will need to utilize his footwork to escape and limit danger. This movement will be especially important after Manny mixes in a body shot.
A successful string of events can see Manny slipping right to avoid a Spence jab, following a right hook to the body as he moves laterally to his right to escape Spence’s immediate range before finishing with a left straight.
This would be an elite exchange, and would not be sustainable in high volume, but if the forty-two year old can mix these in, he will win many of those closely contested rounds that will be necessary if he would like his hand raised while Jimmy Lennon Jr. announces his name.
Likewise, Spence will dedicate his time to set-up his jab and work Pacquiao’s body. He understands that one of Manny’s best skillsets is his awkward movement and activity, so before unleashing power shots, he will likely attempt to limit Manny’s ability to move out of danger and set his own shots up.
Whoever is able to win the battle of movement early on will likely end up winning the fight. Because with strong movement, each of these elite fighters will then be able to land their most devastating shots.
Spence has been known to respect his opponent’s power early on, so it will be important for Manny to fight with patience and move economically to use Spence’s early lack of activity against him.
Based on the keys to victory laid out and the dedication expected from Manny, my prediction is that Pacquiao will walk out of this fight with a SD victory. I think the major difference will be landing a flash knockdown against the American sometime in the mid-rounds as he evades laterally and largely catches Spence with awkward footing.
Perhaps I may be thinking with my heart, but even at forty-two years of age, I think Manny Pacquiao still has enough in him to remain at the top of the Welterweight mountain.
